Thursday 17 January 2019

Delphi method steps | Examples & techniques

The Delphi Method – is a systematic technique of forecasting, that is used to predict the likelihood that will happen in the future by using views and agreement from a group of experts. Who come from the various working areas or industries. The experts who form a panel it could come from a different work unit or of the areas of work, that are different or even from different countries. The Group of experts then gave his views each and give estimates or assumptions to the facilitator to review data. Which he obtain and then process into a summary report.

The experts who were on this panel of experts to discuss and review the summary report. Which then delivers the latest forecasting to estimate or facilitators to generate summary report. This process continues until all of the participants in the expert panel reached an agreement or consensus.


Experts in each round of discussion of the summary report has a complete record of what had been forecast made by the other experts. But they do not know who is actually making the forecasts. Anonymity (no name). This allows the experts to express their views and opinions freely and encourage openness and avoiding errors and revise an earlier forecast.

The process in this Delphi method is the process over and over and may be compose of several round or rounds. The review until finally reached mutual agreement. The first stage is to get an opinion or a group of experts from the forecasting results will be summarize. To serve as the basis for a second round. The summary results of the second round would then serve as the basis for the third round and so on to get a deal together. The purpose of the process over and over again is to clarify issues and identify an agreed part or parts which are not approved and gradually find a mutual agreement.

The steps on the Delphi Method

For more details, here are the steps on the Delphi Method to achieve consensus or mutual agreement.

  1. Select a facilitator

    The first step is to choose the right facilitator, facilitator is a person who has the ability or experience in research and data retrieval.

  1. Identification of the experts required

    Techniques or methods of Delphi is very dependent on the expert panel. The team of this Panel can come from our project team, the customer/customer we or other expert who comes from our own organization or other organization. What is meant by Those Experts are individuals with the knowledge and experience. That are relevant to a particular topic or science.

  1. Define the problem

    Define clearly what problems will be discussed so that experts know what problems should they provide views and opinions. So we have to make sure the problems we discuss we define with precise and comprehensive.

  1. The first round of Questions

    Ask general questions to give you a general understanding. To the experts and get a first glance about the condition in the future from the experts. Those questions may be made in the form of a questionnaire or survey. Arrange and create a summary of the responses as well as remove all material that is not relevant to the topic of the issue being discussed.

  1. The second round of Questions

    Based on answers from the first round of questions. The questions in the second round should be intended to clarify certain issues. These questions may also be made in the form of surveys or questionnaires. Stacking and auto summary result again and remove the material or irrelevant results as well as trying to build consensus in this stage.

  1. The question of the third round

    The last questionnaire is a questionnaire that aims to focus on the support of decision making.

    Note: If you do not get an agreement or consensus on the question of the third round. The possibility of a further round-round is needed to reach an agreement or consensus is need.

  1. Act on the results

    After getting consensus or agreement of views and forecasting in the future. We need to analyze the results or findings and prepare a plan of action. To address the risks and opportunities of the future for our project.

Conclusions about the Delphi Method

The Delphi method is a technique or use it to create a work breakdown structure, identifies risks and opportunities. Forecasting is not an exact science basically, but the techniques or methods of forecasting can help us understand the likelihood of future events and their impact on the project or our company.

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