The Risk and Chance of Innovation
The risk of innovation is defined as the possibility of an adverse implementation of the process and / or result of the introduction of innovation.
Goals and objectives of risk management
Risk management in innovation is understood as a set of practical measures that reduce the uncertainty of the results of innovation, increase the usefulness of the implementation of innovation, reduce the cost of achieving the innovation goal.
The innovation risk management cycle includes the following stages:
1.. Identification and classification of risks
2. Analysis and quantification of risks
3. Develop a risk management strategy
4. Monitoring the innovation process and making tactical decisions on risk management.
The main objectives of risk management in innovation include:
- forecasting the manifestation of negative factors affecting the dynamics of the innovation process;
- assessment of the impact of negative factors on innovation activity and on the results of the introduction of innovations;
- development of methods to reduce the risks of innovative projects;
- creation of a risk management system in innovation.
System-wide risk classification.
Risk identification
The risks of innovative projects include:
Scientific and technical risks:
• negative research results,
• deviations of OCD parameters,
• inconsistency of the technical level of production with the technical level of innovation,
• non-compliance of personnel with the professional requirements of the project,
• deviation in the timing of the implementation of the design stages,
• the occurrence of unforeseen scientific and technical problems.
Risks of legal support of the project:
• erroneous choice of territorial markets for patent protection,
• insufficiently dense patent protections,
• non-receipt or delay of patent protection,
• limitation in the terms of patent protection,
• absence of expired licenses for certain types of activities,
• "leakage" of individual technical solutions,
• the emergence of patent-protected competitors.
Risks of commercial offer:
• inconsistency of the company's market strategy,
• lack of suppliers of necessary resources and components,
• non-fulfillment by suppliers of obligations on the timing and quality of deliveries-
Main methods of risk assessment
Qualitative risk assessment
When assessing the risk, it is quite justified to use the apparatus of mathematical statistics and probability theory in the following cases:
(a) In the case of innovations with analogues. Then it becomes fair to apply the methods of mathematical statistics to assess the most likely parameters of the innovation process and its results;
b) if the innovation has no analogues, or the innovative organization does not have sufficient experience to implement the innovation, or the innovation process is implemented under conditions of uncertainty, probability theory is used.
Degree and price of risk
Risk as an economic category combines an assessment of the probability of an unfavorable development of events and a measure of this unfavorableness. Therefore, a two-dimensional characteristic is used to describe the risk - the degree and price of the risk. The degree of risk quantitatively characterizes the probability of unfavorable and dynamics of the innovation process and negative results of innovation activity. The risk price indicator reflects the quantity of a different assessment of the likely result of innovation, that is, it shows the economic result for which the investor or innovator took the risk.
Risk measure
The economic assessment of the risk measure carried out in the process of making managerial decisions shows possible losses either as a result of any production - economic or financial activity, or as a result of an adverse change in the state of the external environment.
Risk zones are a qualitative characteristic of the degree of risk depending on the probability of its occurrence. There are the following risk areas:
• area of acceptable risk: the occurrence of a risk situation does not lead to a significant deterioration in the financial position of the company;
• moderate risk zone: losses from the occurrence of a risky event are covered by the profits of other areas of activity;
• high-risk zone: as a result of a risk situation, the company's financial position deteriorates;
• unacceptable risk zone: a risky event leads to insolvency or bankruptcy of the enterprise.
Overall project risk assessment
Risk allocation method
Risk sharing is usually carried out among the project participants in order to make responsible for the risk the participant who is best able to calculate and control the risks and is the most financially stable, able to overcome the consequences of the action of risks.
Diversification method
Diversification reduces portfolio risks due to the multidirectionality of investments. It is proved that portfolios consisting of risky financial assets can be formed in such a way that the total risk level of the portfolio will be less than the risk of any individual financial asset included in it.
The simplest example is a portfolio formed from 2 securities with coefficients that coincide modulo, but differ in sign. As a result, the decline in the exchange value of some securities is almost completely compensated by the growth of others, that is, regardless of the market situation, the value of the portfolio remains stable, and investments are subject only to systematic risk. A portfolio formed in this way has a risk generally lower than each of the financial assets that form it. Diversification will have little effect if there is a large correlation between financial assets.
Limitation method
Limiting provides for the establishment of maximum amounts of expenses, sale, credit. This method is used by banks to reduce the degree of risk when issuing loans to economic entities, when selling goods on credit, providing loans, determining the amount of capital investment, etc.
Hedging method
Hedging is an effective way to reduce the risk of adverse changes in the market conjuncture by entering into futures contracts (futures and options). The method allows you to fix the purchase or sale price at a certain level and thus compensate for losses in the spot market (the market of cash goods) with profit and the market of fixed-term contracts. By buying and selling fixed-term contracts, the entrepreneur protects himself or price fluctuations in the market and thereby increases the certainty of the results of his production and economic activities.
Insurance method
Insurance as a system of economic relations includes the formation of a special fund (insurance fund) and its use (distribution and redistribution) to overcome by paying insurance compensation for various kinds of losses, damage caused by adverse events (insured events). For insurance, the presence of two parties is mandatory; a special organization in charge of the relevant fund (insurer) and legal entities or individuals who make established payments to the fund (policyholders). Their mutual obligations are regulated by the contract in accordance with the terms of insurance.
There are the following types of insurance: coinsurance, double insurance, reinsurance, self-insurance.
In co-insurance, two or more insurers participate in certain shares in the insurance of the same risk, issuing joint or separate contracts each for the insurance amount in its share.
Double insurance implies the presence of several insurers of the same interest against the same Czech hazards, when the total insured amount exceeds the insured amount for each insurance contract.
In case of reinsurance, the risk of payment of insurance indemnity or insurance amount assumed by the insurer under the insurance contract may be insured by him in whole or in part with another insurer (insurers) under the reinsurance contract concluded with the latter. In the event of an insured event, the reinsurer insurance organization is liable to the extent of its reinsurance obligations.
Self-insurance is the creation of monetary and in-kind insurance funds directly in economic entities. The main task of self-insurance is to quickly overcome temporary difficulties in financial and commercial activities.
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