First, it is necessary to analyze the state of the industry to which the enterprise belongs, and compare the position of the enterprise in the industry, for which it is customary to use the following two criteria:
· the level of maturity of the industry,
· competitiveness of the enterprise (its position in the market).
Analyzing the maturity of an industry means identifying one of four states of a company's development: embryonic, growing, maturity, and aging.
Competitiveness analysis is the definition of one of the six states of the enterprise: dominant, strong, favorable, unstable, weak, non-viable.
Comparison of maturity and competitiveness of the enterprise will allow to present a matrix of life cycles of the enterprise.
The final result of the preliminary stage of the project analysis is to establish the position of a particular enterprise according to the specified criteria, i.e. literally, which "cell" in the matrix belongs to this enterprise.
Task 3. Determine the position of your company according to the specified criteria.
Based on the above formalization, a strategy for the development of the enterprise is developed (Table 3). The preliminary analysis stage should not be long in time, and the conclusions drawn at the preliminary stage are mainly based on qualitative assessments.
However, this stage is necessary for at least the following two reasons:
Otherwise, the strategic investor will do it on his own, and it is not known what his conclusions will be.
World practice (application of UNIDO standards, IB) shows that, despite the variety of projects, their analysis usually follows some general scheme, which includes special sections that evaluate:
The analysis of the commercial feasibility of the project includes the analysis of consumers and competitors. Consumer analysis should identify consumer requests, potential market segments, and the nature of the buying process. Based on the results of marketing analysis, a marketing plan is developed. It should define strategies for product development, pricing and promotion of goods to the market.
The marketing plan should take into account the availability of other products in the assortment set of the company, as well as the organizational, financial, production and supply aspects of its activities. As part of a marketing plan, it is desirable to predict the reaction of competitors and its subsequent impact on the ability to implement the marketing plan.
The marketing plan consists of the following four blocks:
- Ø Market analysis,
- Ø analysis of the competitive environment,
- Ø development of a marketing plan for the product,
- Ø Ensuring the accuracy of the information used for the previous sections.
The purpose of market research is to identify consumer requests, identify market segments and the buying process to improve the quality and speed up the marketing decision-making process. When analyzing demand and sales, the following key issues should be considered:
- · who is the potential buyer?
- · Why buy the product?
- · How will the purchase be made?
- · What information is needed, and how to collect it?
Market structure research should begin by identifying competitors, public or private enterprises, local, national or international companies, traditional or new, labeled or unmarked products. It is also necessary to assess the possibility and importance of the entry into the market of new participants (future competitors), competition from substitute products (for example, synthetics for cotton, soft drinks for fruit juices). Key questions:
- · what is the current market structure of this product?
- · The basis of competition in this industry?
- · How do institutional constraints affect the competitive environment?
It is very important to use quantitative estimates in the process of marketing analysis. They tend to be more persuasive, both for the enterprise itself and for the strategic investor. Here is an example of an analysis of the competitive position of an enterprise based on quantitative criteria (Table 3).
Highlighting the so-called key success factors (CFU), the position is compared with all competitors, one of three answers is chosen: "better" (sign +), "worse" (sign - ) or the same (sign 0) in relation to each competitor. By assigning a weighting coefficient for each key factor, a generalized indicator of the comparative competitiveness of the enterprise is determined. In particular, for the example under consideration, the aggregate value of the complex criterion of the analyzed enterprise is significantly better compared to companies A and B, almost the same as that of company C and slightly worse than that of company D. In general, the competitive position of the enterprise is satisfactory.
Task 4. Determine the competitiveness of your enterprise based on the Key Success Factors (CFC).
The task of technical (environmental) analysis of the investment project is:
· identification of the most suitable technologies,
· analysis of the availability and cost of raw materials, energy, labor.
Technical analysis is usually carried out by a group of the company's own experts with the possible involvement of narrow specialists. The standard procedure of technical analysis begins with the analysis of our own existing technologies. In this case, it is necessary to be guided by the following criteria:
· the technology should prove itself well earlier, that is, be standard,
· technology should not be focused on imported equipment and raw materials.
If it is impossible to use our own technology, then the possibility of attracting foreign technology and equipment according to one of the following schemes is analyzed:
- · joint venture with a foreign company - partial investment and full provision of all technologies;
- · purchase of equipment that implements technological know-how;
- · "turn-key" - purchase of equipment, construction of a plant, adjustment of the technological process;
- · "product-in-hand" - "turn-key" conditions plus staff training until the company produces the necessary finished product;
- · purchase of production licenses;
- · technical assistance from a foreign technologist.
The choice of alternative technologies can be made on the basis of an analysis of the following aspects :
1. use of selected technologies on a similar scale.
2. Availability of raw materials (number of potential suppliers, their production capacity, quality of raw materials, quantity of other consumers of raw materials, cost of raw materials, delivery costs, environmental risk).
3. Utilities and communications.
4. The presence of a patent or license from the organization selling the technology.
5. At least the initial support of production by the seller of technology.
6. Adaptability of the technology to local conditions (temperature, humidity, etc.).
7. Equipment loading (percentage of the rated capacity under the terms of the project) and the time to reach full capacity.
8. Safety and ecology.
9. Capital and production costs.
The calculation of the generalized criterion is made according to the formula:
(1)
where w is the weight of the quotient criterion, Gk is the value of the quotient criterion.
The project that has the greatest significance of the criterion is recognized as the best. In particular, in the example given, the technical alternatives A and D are almost identical, but D can be preferred.
Financial analysis of the project is the most voluminous and time-consuming. The general scheme of financial analysis of an investment project consists of the following phases:
1. analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise during the three (preferably five) previous years of the enterprise's work – calculation and interpretation of coefficients reflecting liquidity, creditworthiness, profitability of the enterprise and management efficiency.
2. Analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise on the date of preparation of the investment project.
3. Analysis of break-even production - analysis of the structure of the cost of production and sale of the main types of products with the division of costs into variables (change with the change in the volume of production and sales) and constant (remain unchanged when the volume of production changes). Break-even point – the volume of sales of goods, which corresponds to a zero value of profit.
4. Forecast of profits and cash flows in the process of implementing the investment project.
5. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the investment project.
The most methodologically difficult is the issue of assessing the payback of the project during its implementation period. The amount of cash flows that are obtained as a result of the implementation of the project should cover the amount of total investment, taking into account the value of money over time: "the ruble is now more expensive than the ruble in a year", i.e. each new flow of money received in a year is of lesser importance than the equal cash flow received a year earlier. A characteristic that measures the temporal significance of cash flows is the rate of return of cash flows obtained during the implementation of an investment project. The project is accepted if the total cash flow generated by the investments covers their value.
On the other hand, an investment project can be recognized as effective without taking into account the inflationary effect, since an inflationary change in the price level does not affect the assessment of the net value of cash flows given to date.
Economic analysis consists in assessing the impact of the contribution of the project to the increase in the wealth of the state (nation). Let Company C manufacture a product under the following conditions:
· a state organization sells raw materials to the company at preferential prices;
· the state sells imported components to the company at prices lower than international ones;
· the enterprise pays its workers a salary at the level of the country's standards;
· the enterprise sells goods to the state enterprise at prices substantially lower than could be sold abroad on the free market.
To establish the benefit of the state from the implementation of such a project, it is compared with the following alternative options:
· sell raw materials and components to the company at market prices, pay workers according to world standards and buy goods from the company at free prices;
· buy a similar (in quality) product abroad.
Thus, in the process of economic analysis, it turns out the profitability of the state from the implementation of this project, and not the owners of the company.
If the market is completely (ideally) free, then no economic analysis should be done, since it is assumed that what is beneficial to the owners of the company is beneficial to everyone else. True, this situation is ideal even for countries with developed market economies. In reality, the prices for many goods are artificially changed by the state (overestimated or underestimated), and it is very rare to assess the economic contribution of the project, if the financial contribution is known. Therefore, for large investment projects, in addition to assessing their financial efficiency, it is customary to analyze the economic efficiency and economic attractiveness (i.e. the degree of compliance of the project with national priorities).
Measuring the economic efficiency of an investment project can be carried out according to the scheme of three steps:
Step 1. Selection of the target and determination of weighting coefficients (Table 5).
Step 2. Determination of the numerical measure of achievement of each of the goals (in absolute terms or as a percentage of the best). For each project, a weighted value of the complex criterion is calculated:
(2)
Step 3. The choice of the best option according to the criterion of the maximum of the generalized criterion is the measurement of economic efficiency, taking into account the cost of the possible purchase of resources and finished products, domestic prices (which differ from world prices), and much more, which is a distinctive feature of the country and does not coincide with world rules (for example, the conditions for working with the currencies of other countries).
The assessment of economic efficiency can be presented in the form of the following sequence:
1. presentation of the results of financial analysis.
2. Classification of costs and revenues by methods of economic analysis.
3. Translation of financial values into economic ones (they do not coincide due to the discrepancy between prices and costs for the external and internal markets).
4. Evaluation of alternative options for the use of resources in the production of the product.
5. Exclusion of settlements on domestic payments (since they do not change the total wealth of the country).
6. Comparison of annual economic flows of funds with the initial volume of investments.
Task 6. Conduct an economic analysis of the investment project (for example, the supply of medicines or payment for travel to pensioners in the Tomsk region).
Institutional analysis – assessment of the totality of internal and external factors (organizational, legal, political and administrative situation).
Assessment of internal factors is usually carried out according to the scheme:
1. analysis of the possibilities of production management, namely:
· experience and qualification of managers,
· their motivation within the project (for example, in the form of a share of profits, bonuses),
· compatibility of managers' goals with project goals and the main ethical and cultural values of the project.
2. Analysis of labor resources. The labor resources that are planned to be attracted to the implementation of the project should correspond to the level of technologies used in the project. This question becomes relevant in the case of using a fundamentally new technology for the enterprise. There may be a situation when the culture of production at the enterprise simply does not correspond to the project being developed, and then it is necessary either to train workers or to hire new ones.
3. Analysis of the organizational structure. It is necessary to analyze how the decision-making process takes place in the enterprise and how responsibility for their implementation is distributed.
The assessment of external factors is due to:
1. state policy:
· conditions for import and export of raw materials and goods,
· the opportunity for foreign investors to invest and export goods,
· labour laws,
· the main provisions of financial and banking legislation.
2. Approval of the state. Here, the most important factor is the time of approval.
Risk analysis involves taking into account all changes, both in the direction of deterioration and in the direction of improvement. Sometimes they are limited to the analysis of scenarios, which can be carried out according to the following scheme:
1. the choice of the parameters of the investment project are most uncertain.
2. Conduct an analysis of the effectiveness of the project for the limit values of each parameter.
3. Three scenarios are presented in the investment project:
· base
· pessimistic
· optimistic (optional).
A strategic investor usually draws a conclusion based on a pessimistic scenario.
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