Monday 17 December 2018

How to create a sales forecast?

A Sales forecasting is the process of estimating future sales. Accurate sales forecasts enable companies to make inform business decisions and predict short-term and long-term performance. Companies can base their forecasts on past sales data, industry-wide comparisons, and economic trends.

There are several notions about forecasting sales include:

  • Sales forecasting is an estimate or project technically potential consumer demand for a certain time with different assumptions.

  • The sales forecasting is an estimate about something that has not happen.

  • A Sales forecasting is a Budget containing estimates about activities

The company within a certain period to come, as well as contain estimates about the State of the company's financial position or at some point in the future.

The bottom line Sales Forecasting (sales forecasting) is the technique of projection potential subscription requests for a certain time with different assumptions. Jae K Shim argues, "In business, forecast is the basis for capacity planning, production and inventory planning, manpower planning, planning for sales and market share, and financial planning and budgeting". Thus, the forecast is very important in doing by the "entrepreneurs" to run all planning in his company.


The result of a sales forecasting is more of a statement or assessment of the quantify against future conditions on the sale as the projection of technical potential consumer demand for a certain period. Nevertheless, the results estimate obtain may not be the same as the plan.

It is generally the result of a forecasting sales will be convert into a sales plan taking into account the various following points:

  • Opinion of management

  • The plan strategies

  • Linkages with resources

  • Management Ordinance in an attempt to reach the target of sales

With a product sales forecasting in a company, then the company's management will be able to go a step further with more certainty. On the basis of forecasting sales comply this management company will be able to obtain an overview of the State of the company's future. The description of the circumstances of the sale at the time to come is very important for the management of the company, because the company's policy will be greatly affect by the amount of sales of products of the company.

In running his business company usually do 2 approach, i.e.

1. the Speculative Approach (approach speculation)

Where companies do not take into account the risk cause by the lack of uncertainty factors internal and external call.

2. Calculate Risk Approach (approach to calculating risk)

Where the company is actively doing estimation against risks cause by lack of uncertainty factors external and intern.  internal factors (factors which can be master), such as for example:

The quality and usability of products that consists of:

  • How the product is use,

  • Why people buy the product,

  • The potential use of the product,

  • Changes that can increase the usability of the product.

Average cost of production and distribution of the product.

  • The process of formation of the products,

  • The technology in use,

  • The raw materials use,

  • Production capacity.

Management Skills (management skills) that consists of:

  • The issue in face Appreciation

  • Ability of seeing the reaction of competitors.

  • The capability to Forecast

The External Factor (a factor that cannot be master). Like for example:

  • Management Skills of competitors.

  • The economy activity in the Volume specify by: consumers, another manager (other manufacturers) speculators, the rule of law, the State of the political environment, the economic organization of life.

  • Substitutes Taste communities

  • Other factors such as political conflict, climate change and the use of the product, many of the companies that came out include in product.


Sales forecasting is base approach taking into account the risks that will probably happen in the future. Sales forecasting is central to the planning of the whole company that illustrates the potential sales as well as the broad market will be control in the future.

Forecasting the relationship with Plan

The forecasting is not a plan. A forecasting is about what will occur in the future are plans is the determination of what will be done in the time to come. Sales forecasting into a tool that can affect managers in making the planning of sales.

In plans for the sale, the company incorporate the forecast results base management decision, enter other policy and management about the things that are associate (e.g., sales volumes, prices, sales, production, business and costs)

The influence of the truth of the assumption.

the assumption has an impact on forecasting accuracy are made. If the assumption is made exactly or close to reality, then the resulting forecast will also approach the truth, otherwise if the assumption is not appropriate will cause the resulting forecast will experience deviations.

Due to the forecast of sales is the main basis for drawing up the budget, sales

There is some dwarf in Arranging the SALES FORECAST in use to craft a sales forecast, namely:

Forecast base on opinion.

Usually use for putting together a forecast or sales forecast business conditions in General.
The source of the opinions which are use as the basis for doing the forecast is:

  • Consumer opinion.

  • Opinion of the salesman.

  • The opinion of the sales manager.

The opinion of the experts.

Forecast base on statistical calculations.  In this making of the dwarf forecast base on a particular method, but the methods use are:

  • The method of trend of half the median – median.

  • The method of trend of the moment.

  • Least square method.

  • Quadratic

This method is the shape of curve lines, and is use in the company's production activities are irregular, so the use of this method is rarely done.

The method of correlation.

The use of this method is base on historical data that comes from the estimate variable (Y) of historical data (X) are already known, which allegedly influence the development of the data are estimate (Y).

The method of trend.

The trick is determine from data base on opinions and specify standard deviation smallest or close to zero. the method is rarely use by reason of not taking into account a matter of qualitative and subjective data, base on the not base on a specific model, not base on inductive and deductive methods, it is not logical and systematic way.

3. Forecast base on a particular method.

The method use here is an industrial method of analysis. Analysis of industry one of the ways to make a forecast with special methods. In this method a try to link to the potential sale of the company to the industry at large in the sense of:

  • Volume

  • Position in the competition analysis of the industry is divide into several stages in the its use, namely:

  • Create projections of demand industries to find out the prospects of the development of the sales industry in the coming years.

  • Assess the position of the company in conjunction with the industry in General. This position is assess base on the magnitude of the market share that was own by the company from year to year

  • Projection position the company in the future, or to counter expect market share

Market share = Request Company X 100%
Industrial Demand

Method is use for the same types of products.

Methods of analysis of product line.
In General, the analysis of product line use on companies that produce more than one kind of product. Each of these products cannot be taken to be made and the sameness forecast separately.

Implementation is basically the same with statistical methods with methods of analysis trend.

The final use of the method of analysis.

This analysis use in companies that produce goods that are not directly can be consume (semi-finish), but still require a further process to be the final product. Demand for these products is influence directly by the final products that come from products or final products that use them.


In general, the ability that is own by a company for selling their production was limit. Meant by the budget of the seller (Sales Budget) is the budget plan in more detail on the company's sales during the coming period, which includes a plan of the type (quality) goods to be sold, the amount (quantity) of the goods that will be sold, the price of goods to be sold, the time and place of sale (region) of their sales.

The concept of a sales budget

Drafting concepts sales budget can be said to cover all activities in the field of sales. Principal components of the concept of the sales budget is as follows:

  • The basics of putting together a budget

  • Craft a corporate goal

  • Drafting corporate strategy

  • Putting together a forecast sales of

  • Drawing up some budget sales:

  • Budget promotion and inadvertence

  • Sales expenses budget

  • Marketing plan

In drawing up the sales budget to consider several factors, such as:

  • The characteristics of the market that the company facing a Vast market:.

  • The Local Market

  • Are regional

  • National nature.

  • State of the competition:

  • Are Monopoly

Nature free competition

C. The ability of the market to absorb the stuff.

D. The circumstances/the nature, if the customers is

  • The end consumer

  • The consumer industry.

2. The ability of the financial

  • An ability of the finance market research.

  • Ability Fund attempts to achieve sales targets (working capital)

  • The ability of buying raw materials in order to meet sales targets.

3. State of the personnel

Are the amount of labor that include enough, lack or excess (quantity).
If the available workforce able to perform his duties so that the specify targets are achieve (quality).

4. The dimensions of the time

it is noteworthy because in make plans too early, it will likely happen to change circumstances, also need to be taken into consideration to how long the plan that disuses is still reliable.

Step in drafting plans for the sale of
1. The determination of the budget basics

  • Determination of relevant variables that affect the sales of special purpose and the desire public

  • A determination of the marketing strategies use

2. Preparation of sales plan

  • Economic Analysis, by having a projection towards macro-Economic aspects

  • Monetary Settlement

  • The Government policies in the field of

  • Economic Technology and assess the consequences against the demand of industry

Industry Analysis

This analysis was conduct to know the community's ability to absorb similar products produce by industries.

Conduct analysis of achievement of sales a year ago.

This analysis was conducted to find out the position of the company in the past. In other words, to know Market York owned the company in the past. Analysis of the determination of the Sales Achievements to come.

This analysis was conduct to find out the capabilities of the company reaching sales targets in future, having regard to the factors of production such as:

  • Raw material

  • Labor

  • Production capacity

  • State capital

  • Putting together a forecast sales.

Predicting the number of sales is expect assuming everything goes like the past (Forecast Sales)

  • Determine the number of budget sales

  • Count who may be obtain (Budget Profit)

  • Communicate sales plan that was approve on a another party concern.

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